The exit poll findings for the Delhi Assembly elections will be out later in the day after voting concludes.
Surveys since the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) made its debut in 2013 have failed to capture the extent of the Arvind Kejriwal-led party’s dominance. While the average of exit polls correctly predicted a hung Assembly in 2013, they predicted much closer contests in 2015 and 2020, two elections in which the AAP nearly swept Delhi’s 70 Assembly seats.
2013
An average of four exit polls in 2013 put the BJP in a commanding position with 35 seats, just shy of the 36-seat majority mark while predicting that the AAP and the Congress would each finish with 17 seats. Ultimately, the BJP managed 32 seats, the AAP 28, and the Congress just eight.
The exit polls significantly underestimated the AAP’s potential, with the newly formed party successfully building on the India Against Corruption movement. With outside support from the Congress, the AAP formed a short-lived government that lasted 48 days, before Kejriwal’s resignation over the Assembly’s failure to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill was followed by a period under President’s Rule.
That year, two of the analysed exit polls gave the BJP a majority – Headlines Today-ORG put the BJP at 41 seats and ABP-Neilsen at 37. All four polls overestimated the Congress’s performance, predicting seats in the double digits. The poll that arrived at the most accurate conclusion was Today’s Chanakya, which gave AAP 31 seats, the BJP 29, and the Congress 10.
On average, the exit polls were short by 11 seats for the AAP, and gave three and nine additional seats to the BJP and Congress, respectively.
2015
This time, the six exit polls analysed estimated an outright majority for the AAP, but none was able to predict the extent of its victory. The average of these six polls put the Arvind Kejriwal-led party at 45 seats, with the BJP at 24 and the Congress trailing at one. In the end, the AAP won 67 seats, leaving just three for the BJP.
No exit poll in 2015 saw the AAP clearing the 60-seat mark, and just one predicted the party would win more than 50 seats. The Axis My India survey, which estimated 53 seats for the AAP, came closest to the actual outcome. The lowest estimate for the AAP was 39 seats by India TV-CVoter.
For the BJP, however, the exit polls were expecting a much better performance, but not enough to challenge the AAP. All but one poll had put the BJP above 20 seats – Axis My India predicted it would win 17 seats, the lowest estimate.
Two agencies, Today’s Chanakya and Axis My India, correctly predicted the Congress would fail to win a single seat. But the other polls were also rather pessimistic – at four seats, India Today-Cicero gave the Congress its highest tally.
The average of the six polls was off the mark for the AAP by 22 seats, while predicting the BJP would win 21 more seats than it managed.
2020
An average of eight exit polls in 2020 had once again predicted a resounding AAP win with 54 seats, and placed the BJP at 15 seats and the Congress at close to none. The accuracy of the polls considerably improved from five years earlier as the AAP ended with 62 seats and the BJP eight.
The India Today-Axis My India poll was closest to the actual result. It had given the AAP a range of 59 to 68 seats and the BJP two to 11 seats. Once again, every poll correctly predicted the AAP would win an outright majority. Three polls — India Today-Axis My India, ABP News-CVoter, and Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat — were the only ones to predict that the AAP could again clear the 60-seat mark.
At 44 seats, the India TV-Ipsos Times Now-Ipsos polls gave the lowest estimates; these pollsters were also among the three agencies to predict the BJP could win more than 20 seats.
With a range of zero to four seats, the highest estimate for the Congress was from ABP News-CVoter. Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat and Patriotic Voter predicted a maximum of one seat, and the remaining five polls correctly predicted the party would fail to win any seats.
